The only real wild card in the U.S. car market is the replacement rate, which is to say how often cars and trucks make their way to the junkyard. This is perhaps where auto executives should have seen the slowdown coming. In the past two decades, about 13 million vehicles were dropping out of the U.S. fleet every year, far less than the number of new vehicles sold over the past five years. Customers keen to upgrade kept the market running hot for awhile, but that imbalance finally caught up with automakers. As more vehicles stayed in the driveway, fewer came off the lot.Click here to download a pdf of this article, Missile.pdf
Senator Orrin Hatch, Republican chairman of the tax-writing Senate Finance Committee, told Reuters on Monday that bipartisanship may be necessary to ensure that tax reform succeeds but blamed Democrats for slowing down the legislative process.
In Tuesday's letter, Democrats said bipartisan tax reform should offer no relief for the wealthy, citing Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin's assertion last November that there would be no absolute tax cut for the upper class.
"The deleveraging campaign now is focused on curbing shadow banks, and the shadow banks help the smaller companies most," said Shen Jianguang, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong. "Conditions for them will be even harder next year, when regulators are even more serious about cracking down on risks."Click here to download a pdf of this article, Missile.pdf
Republican leaders billed their decision to abandon a controversial plan to tax companies’ domestic sales and imports as an essential step toward uniting their efforts to overhaul the U.S. tax code -- but its death adds new complications to an already intricate task.
Though the so-called border-adjusted tax had circled the drain for months, its last gasp on Thursday greatly increased the chances that any tax cuts Congress delivers will be shallower than President Donald Trump and other GOP leaders want, or shorter-lived, experts said. Without the proposal’s estimated $1 trillion in new revenue, a resulting bill may look more like the temporary tax cuts of 2001 than the once-in-a-generation overhaul of 1986 on which Trump and lawmakers have set their sights.
"So this is an issue that we've been looking at very carefully within the administration and we expect to come out with a position shortly," Mnuchin said. "I am encouraged that Amazon is now charging tax, I believe, on their own sales but not the marketplace. I'm not sure I understand the consistency on that, but I respect the states' ability that there's an awful lot of money that's not being collected."Click here to download a pdf of this article, Missile.pdf
“It seems like they would like to get the process started in the Fall -- some type of open-ended language, like Yellen’s language ‘relatively soon,’ would suffice,” said Steven Friedman, senior economist at BNP Paribas Investment Partners in New York. “I don’t think they’ve done sufficient groundwork to prep the markets to start the process after the July meeting.”
"If the Fed does adjust the inflation language, as we suggest, it just would acknowledge further softness in inflation...That's a little bit dovish," said Mark Cabana, head of U.S. short rate strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Cabana said BofA expects core PCE inflation to be 1.5 percent at year end.
Click here to download a pdf of this article, Missile.pdf
Up for discussion is whether it should change that strategy as drawdown begins and allocate more of its maturing money to shorter-dated Treasury securities. The aim would be to speed up the eventual return of its balance sheet to more normal levels, both in terms of size and duration, thus reducing the Fed’s footprint in the bond market.
The trouble is that would also restrict its ability to act as a market backstop because it would not have longer-dated, on-the-run Treasuries to lend out from its System Open Market Account, which is the Fed’s name for its portfolio of assets.
Click here to download a pdf of this article, Missile.pdf
Investors continued to buy less commercial real estate in both the second quarter and the first half of 2017 compared to the same periods a year ago, a trend that started in 2016 as steady fundamentals that have resulted in generally robust occupancies and rental rate gains have boosted valuations across most property types.
However, CRE investment sales are still running about 10% above the historical sales volume average over the past 10 years, according to preliminary U.S. investment sales data collected by CoStar's nationwide research team. In the second quarter, preliminary volume fell to $106.7 billion compared with $129.2 billion in second-quarter 2016.
For the first time ever, Asia's economic giant will allow imports of American rice, the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced Thursday. That comes as a welcome signal after annual trade talks between the two nations broke down this week without a concrete outcome. And although it is just a small part of an expansive trade relationship, the rice deal signals that, at least for now, the threat of a trade war is tabled as each side is still engaging the other.Click here to download a pdf of this article, Missile.pdf
The Republican-led U.S. House of Representatives took a new step toward tax reform legislation on Wednesday by approving a fiscal 2018 budget resolution that would allow the Senate to pass a sweeping tax code overhaul without Democratic support.Click here to download a pdf of this article, Missile.pdf
© 2015 R.J. O'Brien & Associates LLC
Futures trading involves the substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.