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The UK Parliament on Saturday will hold a momentous vote about whether to accept the UK/EU Brexit withdrawal agreement.

If the UK Parliament approves the Brexit deal on Saturday, then the UK will exit the EU on October 31. The UK would then enjoy a smooth transition period through the end of 2020 during which the UK will continue to operate under EU customs rules while the UK and the EU negotiate a final trade treaty.

If the UK Parliament approves the Brexit deal on Saturday, then most of the market's worries about Brexit will be over until at least the end of the transition period at the end of 2020.

The threat of a no-deal Brexit on October 31 will be gone, and markets will downgrade Brexit worries to the back burner over the next year. 

By contrast, if the UK Parliament on Saturday votes against the Brexit agreement, then the Brexit quagmire will continue. A possible outcome is that PM Johnson engineers a no-deal Brexit on Oct 31.
The most likely outcome, in that case, would be that Prime Minister Johnson would meet the requirements of the Benn Act and request an extension of the October 31 deadline.

The next step on Brexit would then be determined by the party that wins the next election. 


U.S. and Chinese officials on Thursday made various statements trying to reassure the markets that talks are on track for a phase-one trade deal. Their goal is to write up that deal in legal language and have Presidents Trump and Xi sign the deal at the upcoming APEC Summit in Chile on Nov 16-17.

China's gross domestic product slide to 6%, the lowest level since the early 1990s.

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The UK Parliament can meet on Saturday for an up or down vote on an agreement.
If the UK Parliament votes down an agreement on Saturday, then UK Prime Minister Johnson is required by the Benn Act to request an extension of the Oct 31 Brexit deadline. The question in that case would be whether Mr. Johnson complies with the spirit of the law and gets a deadline extension from the EU, or whether he would find a loophole or simply refuse to request an extension, in which case there is a risk of a no-deal Brexit on Oct 31.
What’s in the Brexit fix?  Here are some of the high points.
China says trade team is in close contact with the US on the trade deal text.
China confirms two American citizens have been detained.

Chinese GDP is expected to fall to 6.1%.
US Senators to press ahead on a Hong King bill.  Why?  There are not enough things going on in the US to work on.
Trump's letter to Erdogan.
The consensus is for today's Sep U.S. manufacturing production report to show a decline of -0.3%. 
The market consensus is for today's Sep housing starts report to fall by -3.2% to 1.320 million.
The Treasury today will sell $17 billion of 5-year TIPS.
The symbolism of Kim Jun Un on the horse.
The Blob lives.

Click here to download a pdf of this article, Missile.pdf
 
 

Consensus for retail sales is +0.3%
Moody's Chief Economist Zander thinks the risks are high for a recession.
Expectations remain in place for a rate cut at the Oct. Fed meeting.
Do we or don't we have a phase 1 trade deal with China.
Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Geng Shuang warned American lawmakers to stop meddling in Chin's internal affairs.
China suprised everyone with an injection of 200B yuan through the medium-term lending facility.
Irish PM Varadkar said progress is being made but, there is more work to be had.
The betting markets are discounting only a smal (15%) chanc of a no-deal Brexit.
Turkey rejects a Syria ceasefire.
Did the US carry out a cyber attack on Iran?
France warns Iran to refrain from new reductions to the nuclear commitments.

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CPI expected to rise slightly to 1.8% y/y.
The Treasury will conclude this week's $78B coupon package by selling $16B of 30-year bonds.
The markets are hoping that China at the high-level talks that begin today, will offer enough concessions.
The US is weighing a currency pact with China as part of limited deal.
The South China Morning Post on Wednesday night reported that there was no progress earlier this week at deputy-level US/Chinese trade meetings.

Hong Kong going in the economic ditch.
The Fed is worried about downside risks.
​Turkey begins operations in Syria.
Boris Johnson to meet with Irish Pm Varadkar today.
The UK is sending a four legged rover to the moon.
 

Click here to download a pdf of this article, Missile.pdf
 
 

The Repo market has a history of intrigue.
China may or may not be open to a partial deal.
If your child (China) doesn't repond to how you are commuicating, you have to change the tone.
China strongly urges the US to remove sanctions and stop accusing it of human rights violations.
Turkish and Syrian rebel allies will push into northern Syrian to create a safe zone and allow Syrian to leave Turkey and return to Syria.  
PG&E, the California utlity, will cut electricity as part of a plan to prevent power line from sparking another deadly (and costly) fire. 
Electricite de France said repairs of faulty welds will boost the project's cost by 14%.  These repairs highlight the increasing lack of skilled workers due to the world wide contraction in use of nuclear power.

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Boris Johnson says Brexit deal is essentially impossible if the EU demands Northern Ireland should stay in the customs union.
UK tweaks no deal Brexit tariffs for trucks, fuel and clothing.
For the UK to cede sovereign territory to the EU is beyond crazy.
German industrial production unexpectedly imporved in August.
The US moves 50 special force troops out of Northern Syria.
There is concern that Turkey will try to wipe the Kurds off the map in Northern Syria.
The $1b scam.

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Is a limited deal with China in the offing?
German factory orders declined more than economist forecast.
Taiwan's export drop add to warning signs.
Hong Kong protestors are warned the will "bear the consequences for their actions."
Plastic waste has begun to push the limits of domestic storage.
The US began pulling out of nothern Syria.
GE said if would freeze pension plan benefits for 20k US employees.
A Scottish judge refused to put further obligations on Boris Johnson.

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The markets fear that any near-term weakness in the labor market could quickly translate into reduced consumer confidence and spending. That would be particularly negative for the U.S. economy since U.S. GDP is currently being supported almost exclusively by consumer spending.
Signs of slowing in the west Texas oil patch.
Irish PM Varadkar said he did not fully underatand how the British proposals might work.
Boris Johnson's do or die Brexit vow goes to court in Scotland.
Don't trust China to make our subway trains.
US and the UK  ​have signed an agreement that will allow law enforcement agencies to access data from tech companies more quickly.
Norway is the green battery for nothern Europe.
The State Department is ​looking at a stinger missile sale to the Ukraine.
 

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Is there a Brexit breakthrough?
The WTO gave the US a green light on imposing tariffs on the EU.
The euro-zone economy ground to a halt in September.
Hong Kong has loosened guidlines on use of force by police.
North Korea said it has successfully test-fired a new submarine launced ballistic missile.

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Is the US economy nearing stall speed?
Democrats and their plans to tax themselves.
Boris Johnson issues an ultimatum.
Strong Franc revises disinflation in Switerland.
Hong Kong's 4-dead in Ohio moment...it is going to get worse.
The Russian oil minister says black swans are flying around the oil industry.
North Korea's latest provocation may have come from a submarine.
 

Click here to download a pdf of this article, Missile.pdf