Top Economic News

 

China has options on how it could respond to new tariffs.
Japan took over as the top holder of US Treasury securities.
U of Michigan sentiment is expected a bit lower today.
Housing Starts are are expected to show a small increase.
Gibralter releases Iran's oil tanker but, there is no one to Captain the ship.‚Äč
Russia benfitted the most from sanctions on Venezuela and Iran.
High sulfur fuel oil is about to go away.
China, Japan and South Korea are meeting on trade.
To cut or not cut rates, that is the question.

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Retail Sales kind of important today.
Unit Labor Costs also important.
China say the US is violating the Xi/Trump agreement on tariffs.
Unlike the US, European banks provide the lion's share of funding in the real economy.
China's military continue to practice riot control.
Trump suggest a personal meeting with Xi over Hong Kong.
 

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Recession fears are in the drivers seat.
China agrees to a phone call in September.
The US postpones adding some tariffs.
China needs more stimulus.
China sets the official midpoint refvernce rate for the yuan stoonger than on Tuesday.
Recession warnings are piling up.
The good, bad and ugly news is negative rates may go further in Europe.
The ECB is warning firms to add more reserves as Brexit is coming.
China refused two US warships port visits in Hong Kong. 

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CPI is expected to edge higher at 1.7%.
The Italians can't even agree on a no-confidence vote date.
The Italian-German 10-year bond yield spread came back in 8 BPS and looks the bounce to trounce.
The onshore Chinese yuan edged to a new 11.25 year low of 7.0725 per dollar.
The Chinese Central Bank set the official midpoint reference rate for the yuan at 7.0326.
Hong Kong's Airport was nearly shut down for the second straight day by protestors.
Europe suffering from the US/China trade impasse as Germany probably contracted in Q2.
Wages in the UK rose at the fastest pace in 11 years.
Iran's seized oil tanker will be released Tuesday night by Gibralter.
Radiation levels seen anywhere from 4 to 20 times higher than usual in Severodvinsk.
 

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Watching for developements in US/Chinese trade negotiations.
We are in the tail end of Q2 earnings.
Will Italy get the snap election being called for.
The US will release the next batch of goods to be hit with tariffs.
The world is trimming exposure to Argentina...again.
New Zealand experinece theri own exit that weighed on them for a decade.
Goldman lowers its 4Q GDP forecast to 1.8% from 2.0%.
The PBOC set the official midpoint referencre for the Yuan at 7.0211.
Russia admints to another nuclear reactor expolosion.
The Straits of Hormuz have become a "tinderbox."
South Korea stikes back at Japan over trade.

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The consensus is for today's July PPI to be unchanged from Jun's 1.7% y/y.
The US readies a tariff list and halts Huawei licenses.
WTI crude oil prices are near a 7-month low and OPEC is concerned.
Commodity purchases by China rebounded in July, signaling some recovery in trade before new tariff threats.
The British economy unexpectedly shrank in the 2nd quarter.
Italy is on the boil again.
Why low earth satellites are the new space race.

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Yuan fix better than expected.
ECB expected to push rates further negative.
China reported better than expected trade data.
China tells Hong Kong protestors there is  no room for compromise.
There is a scramble to set up manufacturing in Vietnam.
Pakistan suspends trade ties with India over the Kashmir.

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Kudlow expects early-Sep trade talks with the Chinese
China has not added anymore retaliation.
The Yuan fix set at better than expected levels.
It suggests the Chinese authorities do not want a sharp depreciation of the Yuan and the capital flight that will follow.
The Treasury will sell $27B of new 10-year notes.
China says the US has no grounds for labeling it a currency manipulator.
What are the 3 conditions necessary to be labeled a currency manipulator?
1. You intervene directly into the currency market to push or pull your currency.
2. You have a trade surplus with the US.
3.  You have a current account surplus. (A current account surplus means an economy is exporting a greater value of goods and services than it is importing.)
Tariff fears caused a US import surge that has taken away warehouse space.
What are tariffs costing the US?
India does rate cuts its own way.
Is that Hong Kong protest thing still a thing?
Tesla gets a cease and desist from the NHTSA
German IP output falls as factories suffer from trade wars.
NATO has its eyes on China.
 

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China fights back.
On the look out for any developments in the US/EU and US/Japan trade talks.
Market expectations increase dramatically for a rate cut inn september.
The peak of earnings season is over but, there are still 61 of the S&P 500 to release this week.
India takes back the Kashmir.
Protests in Hong Kong continue and I expect a heavier military response.
NY Fed President Williams continues to make his mark on the NY Fed.
Iran seized another tanker.

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Trump ups the pressure on the trade deal with China.
China said they will retaliate.
Look for China to add stimulus to their economy.
Trump to discuss trade with the EU this afternoon.
The Senate voted to approve the 2-year budget and they left on a 5-week vacation.
US jobs report will have everyone holding their breath.
Narco shootouts in Mexico City are shattering the cities haven status?
Lowes to cut staff across the US by a couple of thousand.
The US pulls out of the SALT treaty with Russia.

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