Top Economic News

 

NFIB Small Business Optimism 101.2 actual {exp 103.0} v. 104.4 prior, which was unrevised.
Jolts Job Openings exp 6846 v. 6888 prior 0900 hrs cst
PPI Revisions are due out at some point today.
Powell speaks with students in Mississippi 1000 hrs cst
Powell speaks on rural poverty 1145 hrs cst
Cleveland Fed President Mester (alternate voter) speaks on economic outlook and monetary policy 1730 hrs cst
KC Fed President George (non-voter) speaks on the US economy 1830 hrs cst
 

Click here to download a pdf of this article, Missile.pdf
 
 

Tentative border deal in Congress, puts the ball in the President's court.
Rubio backs a new proposal to tackle stock buybacks.
Big NATO pow wow this weekend could go either way.
​How Theresa May might just pull off the Brexit.
OPEC said it removed 800k barrels of oil output in January.

Click here to download a pdf of this article, Missile.pdf
 
 

Where has shame gone?  Budget negotiations are hung up on the number of cots.
UK economy wilts as Brexit jitters hit business investment.
China upbeat on trade talks.
China angry over US naval ships passing through the disputed South Sea Shipping lanes.
Another trade battle is brewing.  This time with European Auto exports.
Should Venezuela default on money from Russia, Russia will claim the 49.9% share of Citgo put up as collateral.

Click here to download a pdf of this article, Missile.pdf
 
 

 

Odds still seem good for a Trump tariff deadline extension
Market hopes that the U.S. and China might somehow pull off a
trade deal before March 1 were largely dashed on Thursday after President Trump said he would not meet with Chinese President Xi before the March 1 deadline.
Mr. Trump had been optimistic about an end-Feb summit as recently as last week. That led to speculation that the U.S. and China were essentially planning a victory summit for late February where Presidents Trump and Xi could announce an agreement.
The markets were skeptical all along about whether the two sides would reach an agreement before the March 1 agreement.
My view is there is a bedtter than 50-50 chance the tariff-hike deadline will be extended.

Congressional negotiators tasked with finding a bipartisan border security deal expressed some optimism about reaching a deal by Monday. That would leave time for the House to write the legislation and put the border deal and a spending bill on the docket before the continuing resolution (CR) expires next Friday (Feb 15).
The odds for a Congressional border security deal seem good since one would think neither the Democrats nor Republicans want another shutdown.
However, the big question is whether Mr. Trump would accept any small Congressional border security deal that falls far short of his demand for $5.7 billion in wall funding and that at most provides for a small amount of new border fencing or "infrastructure."
If Mr. Trump does accept a Congressional border security deal, then the markets would be happily rid of the wall funding issue at least through the end of the fiscal year this September.
If not, then Mr. Trump will have to decide whether to shut down the government again next Friday, or let the government stay open with a new spending bill and instead go ahead with declaring a national emergency.
Alternatively, everyone could punt and pass another temporary CR to allow more time to hash over a border security compromise.
We need term limits...

In line with all predictions, UK Prime Minister May on her visit to Brussels on
Thursday received another resounding "no" regarding any EU concessions on the Irish border backstop, although the two sides did at least put negotiating teams back to work to see if they could pull anything out of a hat in the next few weeks.
Ms. May is destined to head to Parliament next week with no EU concessions to overcome the massive defeat that her Brexit
separation plan received in Parliament last Tuesday.
Ms. May has promised Parliament a new Brexit vote next Thursday (Feb 14) if
she cannot produce a revised Brexit deal with "alternative measures" for the Irish backstop. That Feb 13 deadline is self-imposed and could slip. Yet, when the vote occurs, the result will be highly uncertain given that time is short and options are dwindling.
The most likely outcome seems to be simply a delay of the March 29 Brexit deadline. However, the betting odds are still as high as 33% for the disaster of a no-deal Brexit by April 1, according to oddschecker.com.

US fund managers brace for a consumer slowdown.
Germany acknowledged that a slower pace of expansion will pressure the budget.
The UK financial watchdog is looking at daily updates from property funds.
The connection between Venezuela, Turkey and maybe Iran.
The Administration is considering a a ban on Chinese telecom equipment in US networks.
India could lose vital trade concessions from the US.
Britan and the EEA EFTA countries have reached an agreement on citizens' rights.

Click here to download a pdf of this article, Missile.pdf
 
 

The Boe said Brexit has raised uncertainty and already has caused a hit on GDP.
The EU lower GDP forecast.
Powell mentioned 2 concerns, lagging participation rate and Brexit.
Extreme cold weather drastically effects the range of an EV vehicle.
SunTrust and BB&T are merging.
SocGen looking to cut costs.
JC Penney getting out of the appliance business.
How US ethanol reaches China tariff free.
The Democrats offer out a new green deal.

 

Click here to download a pdf of this article, Missile.pdf
 
 

MBA Mortgage Application (-2.5% actual v. -3.0% prior)
Trade Balance -$49.3b actual {exp -$54.0b} v. -$55.5b prior, which was revised to -$55.7b
Cash Management Bill Auction ($50b)
10-year note auction ($24B)
Fed Governor Quarles speaks on bank stress testing 1705 hrs cst
Fed Chairman Powell to host a town hall meeting with educators 1800 hrs cst

Click here to download a pdf of this article, Missile.pdf
 
 

For whom the Brexit clock tolls
Irish PM sees growing desire to avoid a no-deal Brexit.
EU Council President Tusk said the priority is to avoid a no-deal (they need the cash).
How bad is China's economy?  Depends on what you are selling.
China hacked Norway's Visma to steal client secrets?
Despite reports that production is slowing, oil is dropping on supply concerns.

 

Click here to download a pdf of this article, Missile.pdf
 
 

Stop worrying about the Fed's balance sheet.
Venezuela has dismissed offers of international aid.
Service sector bring the UK economy to a near halt.
Italy's broadening slump weighs down euro-area growth.
Italy's business lobby says new citizens income is too generous.
France's National Assembly is expected to approve and anti-wreckers law.
French police are struggling to stem a growing flow of migrants crossing the mountains from Spain.
Turkey's Erdogan said there is no satisfactory plan for a safe zone.
North Korea protecting nuclear missiles said a UN monitor.
Millions in cryptocurrency are frozen after quadriga founders death.

Click here to download a pdf of this article, Missile.pdf
 
 

Margin deterioration is going to be a big theme this year.
A rare glimpse of the US Targeting a Chinese Giant.
JP Morgan says 2020 might not be the year to thing about a recession.
Spain, France, Germany and the UK followed through on last weeks pledge to recognize Mr. Guaido.
Venezuela's Guaido seeks a meeting with China to establish a dialouge.
The EU's most dangerous borrowing lie in the balance sheet of Italian banks.
Germany is facing a budget shortfall of about 25B euros.
Norway is missing 60M barrels of oil.
Developing the giant gas/oil field in the mediterranean.
Iraqi President says Trump did not ask permission to watch Iran from Iraq.

Click here to download a pdf of this article, Missile.pdf
 
 

What economists are saying about the payroll number.
US China trade deal starting to take form.
The great oil paradox.
Russia is expanding its ties with Lebanon.
As January goes, so goes the year.
 

Click here to download a pdf of this article, Missile.pdf