Top Economic News


Thursday, June 2, 2016:

“Employment grew modestly since the last report, but tight labor markets were widely noted,” according to the Fed’s latest Beige Book.
Wednesday’s Beige Book may do little to change officials’ outlook for the economy. It characterized the economy as slowly gaining ground, using versions of the word “modest” or “moderate” 23 times in the report's six-page summary.
The era of one-company careers is largely gone, and now the latest shift in labor markets is piling on the anxiety for many who do manage to get hired.
Toby Nangle, head of multi-asset allocation at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, contends that major central banks and governments have already done something that differs from helicopter money in form, but not function.‚Äč
Pimco MD Mike Amey puts the likelihood of a Brexit at 40%. Bookmakers price the chance of a Brexit at 20%.

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Wednesday, June 1, 2016:

  • Stocks, Oil Fall as Manufacturing Data Underwhelm; Bonds Climb
  • Home Prices Less Than 4% Off All-Time High: Black Knight
  • Why Banks Are Dumping Fannie, Freddie Debt
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Tuesday, May 31, 2016:

Growth in U.S. Property Prices Bounces Back After First Quarter Slowdown.
Investors expect a smooth summer for stocks, according to Goldman.
Fed's Bullard: Tight US labor market may put upward pressure on invlation. Looking to the Fed meeting in June.

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Friday, May 27, 2016:

Commercial property price growth in the US picked up in April after a slower than expected 1Q.
South Korea state-run Korea Post Savings, is looking to increase US commercial real estate holdings.
Ramin Nakisa, global macro strategist at UBS said a UK vote to leave the EU would hurst GDP by approximately 2% over the long term, with even a bigger effect in FX.
G-7 leaders warned on Friday that a British vote to leave the EU would seriously threaten the world economy.
Profits of China's industrial firms in April rose 4.2% y/y.

Click here to download a pdf of this article, Missile.pdf

Thursday, May 26, 2016:

St. Louis Fed President Bullard (voter) said stronger labor market favors slow normalization.
Bullard also said the Fed is an "equal opportunity" worrier about Europe and Asia.
The rebalancing of oil is under way but, the latest tightening has come from outages and these are unlikely to last.
Corrosion-resistant steel from China will face final U.S. anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties of up to 450 percent under the U.S. Commerce Department's latest clampdown on a glut of steel imports, the agency said on Wednesday.
Growth in the UK slosed to 0.4% in Q1.  Business investment was up 0.4% y/y after rising 3.0% y/y in Q4 2015.

Click here to download a pdf of this article, Missile.pdf

Wednesday, May 25, 2016:

St. Louis Fed President Bullard (voter) said there is no reason to prejudge the June meeting. The committee will look at the data and decide then.
In China the Minxin Manufacturing PMI index declined to 45.8 from 46.9 in April.
There are two concerns in China, the reliance on property collateral to secure loans has increased and property prices have also increased to a level that some argue are over-heated.
The ECB expanded the size of its debt-buying program in April by a third to E80b a month and appears to be running out of securities eligible under its own rules.

Click here to download a pdf of this article, Missile.pdf

Tuesday, May 24, 2016:

Philly Fed President Harker said he can see the possibility of 2 or 3 hikes over the remainder of the year.
Loomis bond fund manager Stokes said she doesn't see a hike in June or July and thinks September is iffy.
Autonomous Reasearch Partner Charlene Chu said wealth-management products are the biggest immediate threat to the China's financial system.
Japan's exports fell sharply in April and manufacturing activity suffered the fastest contractions since late 2012.
All of the oil nations like Angola, Nigeria, Venezuela that have taken money for survival, have'nt an money left for investments...a danger to their long-term growth.

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Monday, May 23, 2016:

St. Louis Fed Pres. Bullard (voter) said signs US growing below trend pace of 2%
SF Fed Pres Williams (non-voter) said it would be appropriate to start raising rates again later this year.
Ron Insana said inflations remains a phantom problem of the past.
El-Erain: If it weren't for the Brexit, he thinks the Fed would hike as soon as June.
UK finance Minister Osborne said the UK would lose at least 500k jobs over 2 years if they leave the EU.
EU PMI fell to 52.9 from 53.0.  Expectations were for 53.2. PMI signals GDP around 0.3%. 
Iran said it has no plans to join any freeze in crude oil.
Oil inventories rose from 57 days to 67 days.

Click here to download a pdf of this article, Missile.pdf

Friday, May 20, 2016:

Almost 1/3 of US vehicles traded in this year were in negative equity and it's an unhappy signal for auto-maker profits.
Iron Ore inventories in China swelled to the highest level since March of 2015.
A fleet of 40 supertankers sit in Malaysian waters with nearly 48m barrels of oil, up 10% from the previous week.
Chinese regulators appoved 3 new coal-to-gas projects, depite pollutions risks & economic viability of the technology.
According to a report by analytics firm Dynamic Action, retailers sold 4% fewer items at full price in the first quater than a year ago, while the percentage of promotional products ordered online increased 63%.
Bookmakers have cut the odds on Britian voting to remain in the EU.  By contrast, the FT poll of polls suggested, as of May 17, that 46% of the voters wish to stay v. 40% to leave.

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Thursday, May 19, 2016:

Iron Ore mining giant Vales delivered a three-prong warning on prices.
China's Secretary General of the Iron and Steel Association said there is too much trade friction.
China said it will continue its tax rebates to steel exporters to support the painful restructuring.
US crude inventories climbed to the highest level since 1929.
Serious problems in the Chinese economy will reverberate in Russia.
NOIs on Multifamily property continue to increase.
The number of new apartments under construction is at its highest level since 1980.
Major institutional investors are ramping up their investment activity in self-storage.

Click here to download a pdf of this article, Missile.pdf