Top Economic News

 

“We are close to our targets,” Fischer said in a speech at the Aspen Institute in Aspen, Colorado on Sunday. “Looking ahead, I expect GDP growth to pick up in coming quarters.
“The single focus on GDP or GDP growth in many policy discussions is misleading,” Olivier Blanchard, a former International Monetary Fund chief economist.

The world’s largest banks are racing to meet a deadline next month when billions of dollars in new collateral requirements will begin to hit the over-the-counter derivatives market.
Iraq, OPEC’s second-biggest producer, will increase crude exports by about 5 percent in the next few days after an agreement to resume shipments from three oil fields in Kirkuk.
Because of the production and storage overhang in fuel markets, Barclays said a 20 percent price rally seen in August was unwarranted and that oil prices of $50 or higher were unsustainable.
"There are a number of downside risks to the global economic outlook, the most immediate being associated with the US presidential election in November," Moody's analysts led by Madhavi Bokil said in the note.
The U.K. should avoid any drastic steps to cut corporate taxes, or similar measures, as it prepares to start talks on leaving the European Union, Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Loefven said.

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"If negative interest rates spread beyond major financial institutions to the overall economy, the economy will shift increasingly towards a cash-only economy. This means increased transaction costs and rising risks of theft," S&P Global said in a large report.
The City of London has relinquished hopes the U.K. will retain full access to the European single market for goods and services, the Financial Times reported on Thursday.
"I think she's going to play her cards very close to the vest. I don't think she can signal a September hike," said Diane Swonk, CEO of DS Economics.
Barclays' chief U.S. economist, Michael Gapen, is among a minority on Wall Street who believe the Fed could raise rates in September. 
"Listen to Dudley and not the minutes," wrote Deutsche Bank currency strategist Alan Ruskin. "I think Dudley could not have been clearer on the (market) being mispriced on Fed rate risks.
The normalization of monetary policy is hampered by a low neutral rate, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan said on Thursday. "There is room for the Fed to maneuver but not as much as people might think because the neutral rate of interest is somewhat lower than people think," Kaplan told a meeting of financial service professionals in Dallas, Texas.
U.S. crude oil is reaching all corners of the world, after a 40-year ban on exports was lifted at the end of last year.
Combined gross domestic product in the ASEAN-5 nations -- Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam -- will rise about a third to $3 trillion in the five years to 2020, fueling commodities-intensive infrastructure projects.
China's huge zinc smelting industry has slashed its fees for turning ore concentrates into refined metal by 20 percent as competition for dwindling global mine output heats up, industry sources said this week.

 

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Retail Sales in the UK rose 1.4% in July.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development noted recently that U.S. GDP has expanded by more than 10% in inflation-adjusted terms since the end of 2007, while the euro area and Japan have stagnated.
In Washington and on Wall Street, the fight over Fannie and Freddie drags on.
"We remain skeptical that renewed talks of a production freeze by OPEC and others will lead to a deal. Prices are only marginally above where they were at the April meeting and couldn't agree to a deal," ANZ analysts said.
SolarCity Corp on Wednesday said it would cut operating costs, including slashing its chief executive's salary, to bring expenses in line with its reduced solar installation outlook.
"The slowdown and rebalancing of China's economy likely gradual," -Madhavi Bokil, Moody's senior analyst. "Thus we do not expect China to exert a significant drag on global growth over the rest of 2016 & 2017."
Japanese exports tumbled at steepest pace in seven years as stronger yen weighed on international shipments.
The apartment construction boom in downtown districts, far from abating, is still gaining momentum.
The growing shortage of medical office building properties has stimulated a wave of new development, with an estimated 12.2 million square feet of medical office space coming into service this year, 37% above 2015 deliveries.
Fewer private equity real estate funds are reaching their final capital-raising goals, however, the level of capital investors have ponied up for real estate has increased for two consecutive quarters.

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Cisco Systems Inc. is laying off about 14k employees, representing 20% of the workforce.
Today's release of the minutes from the late July Fed meeting should provide insight into how officials perceive the balance of risks and what actions they might take.
Since the UK's June 23 vote to leave the EU, pension deficits have swelled as record-low UK government bonds have reduced returns on fund investments.
"The U.K.'s strongly consumer-driven economic recovery is about to grind to a halt," Scott Corfe, director of the Centre for Economics and Business Research, warned in a statement.
Chinese police have this year uncovered $30 billion worth of illegal banking activity, involving 158 cases of underground banks and money laundering, the official Xinhua news agency reported the Ministry of Public Security (MPS) as saying late on Tuesday.
Cargo prices for Australian thermal coal from its Newcastle terminal, seen as the Asian benchmark, have soared over 35 percent since mid-June to more than one-year highs of almost $70 a ton, pushed by surprise increases in Chinese imports.
According to the latest survey of agricultural bankers in the Eighth Federal Reserve District, farm income declined in the second quarter of 2016 relative to a year ago. Respondents feel the decrease in farm income is causing reduced farm household and capital spending, as well as putting downward pressure on land values and cash rents.

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Central banks and governments around the world must be able to adapt policy to changing economic circumstances.
"There will be 40 to 50 million tons of homeless LNG by 2020."
Following Air Liquide's $13.2B takeover of US rival Airgas, there are just four major industrial gas companies worth talking about.
"The UK's strongly consumer-driven economic recovery is about to grind to a halt, Scott Corfe, director of the Centre for Economics and Business Research.
"While the exports share of gross domestic product (GDP) in China today is similar to the level seen in the mid-1990s, the types of goods exported by China have changed significantly" Goldman explained.
China launched the world's first quantum satellite, which will help it establish "hack-proof" communication between space and the ground.
The head of Iran's National Security Council said on Tuesday that Tehran and Moscow are sharing facilities to fight against terrorism.

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Japan's economy failed to grow on a quarterly basis during the April-June period.
The Bundesbank said the government's current plans that include raising the retirement age to 67 by 2030 and increasing contributions, don't account for the fact that the ratio of retirees to contributors is set to widen further.
"The Bank of England clearly believes that the effect on our pension system is acceptable long-term "collateral damage" to prevent a short-term recession.
The IMF is lending Egypt $12b and looking for commitments of around $5b to $6b from bilateral creditors. ​

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"Productivity continues to be quite disappointing," said Jim O'Sullivan, chief US economist at High Frequency Economics.
The BOE was unable to to buy the L1.17b of long-dated government bonds it wanted to and brings into question, whether the BOE will find enough willing sellers to complete the L70b program.
As the amount of negative yielding debt grows, bonds increasingly trade less and less on fundamentals.
According to shipping data, more than 10m barrels of crude or 10% of daily world production, are parked off the English coast.
Libya's National Oil Corporations said on Sunday that it is receiving reports of armed conflict being "immiment" near the Zueitina oil terminal.
Germany's interior minister will propose a raft of new security measures.
Brazil's Senate voted to accept charges against suspended President Rousseff.

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A second Chinese shipbuilder failed to make a bond payment.
Investors are more interested in Chinese government bonds as the economy slows.
China's factory price deflation moderated further in July.
Chinese outbound investment continued its rapid growth, reaching $17B over the first 5 months of 2016.
Yields on benchmark 10-year debt touched all-time lows in the UK and Spain.
Retail spending for July in the UK was 1.9% higher y/y.
"If the economy proves to have turned down in line with the initial survey signals, I believe that more easing is likely," said BOE external member Ian McCafferty.

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We saw a over-supply of office space long before the Brexit.
Reform efforts will see prime money market funds, an important source of short-term funding for banks, cause some turmoil as banks adjust to a shrinking pool of financing.
"I think the drop in imports is mainly from the demand side," said Ma Xiaoping, an economist at HSBC in Beijing.
China's foreign exchange reserves fell to $3.20T in July from $3.21T
According to the IMF, China is expected to run a moderate budget deficit of 3%.  On the surface it looks reasonable but there is more to it than meets the eye.

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BOE Head Carney said, "I am not a fan of negative interest rates."
In a discussion on Trump, Clint Eastwood said, "He's onto something because secretly everybody's getting tired of political correctness, kissing up," the acclaimed actor and director said of Trump. "That's the kiss-ass generation we're in right now. We're really in a pussy generation. Everybody's walking on eggshells."
Royal Bank of Scotland said on Friday that the latest cut threatened to undermine its profitability.
In the UK an index of permanent employment positions dropped to 45.4 from 49.3 in June.
German Factory orders unexpectedly declined in June.
Oil companies have so far failed to stop the increase in their debt load.
Copper is entering the eye of the supply storm.
Price growth in commercial property resumed.

 

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