Tuesday, May 10, 2016:
The Small Business Optimism Index increase to 93.6 from 92.6.
The IMF said the Monetary Authority of Singapore should remain vigilant to signs of deflation.
The Finance Minister of Japan said that they are ready to intervene to weaken the currency if moves were volatile enough to hurt the country's trade and economy.
Producer Prices in China declined to 3.4% y/y from 3.8%.
Consumer Prices in China rose 2.3% y/y.
Monday, May 9, 2016:
Chicago Fed President Evans said the Fed's wait and see stance is appropriate.
Chicago Fed President Evans said it is not so bad to overshoot a bit on inflation.
Chicago Fed President said US fundamentals are good.
China's leading Communist Party mouthpiece acknowledged the risks of a build-up of debt.
Iron ore prices are falling back to Earth.
Three of the World's most influential bond invesyors say the Fed is still on course to raise rates this year.
Friday, May 6, 2016:
Chinese banks' bad loans are at least 9 times bigger than official numbers indicate.
Chinese banks channeling loans via asset managment plans record them as receivables rather than loans, allowing them to dodge capital requirements.
China's asset managers warned of "Ponzi Scheme" risks from pooling investor funds intended for other products.
The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered inflation predictions to a range of 1 to 2% from 1.5 to 2.5%.
Too many investors dislike long duration positions.
Goldman cutting more jobs in securities units, with reductions in fixed income operations to roughly 10% this year.
Thursday, May 5, 2016:
Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, "Fed will move when the data allows it."
Q. How consequential is the difference between promising 2% growth & delivering 1%? A. St. Louis Fed Pres Bullard.
Bullard: "The general rule of thumb within the Fed is that labor market data trumps G.D.P. data."
Libya's already crippled oil production is at risk of further disruption from a stand-off between eastern and western political factions, which prevented a Glencore cargo from loading.
While oil facilities are not in the fire's path, multiple companies have curbed activities to allow workers & others safety.
U.S. production continues to fall- the latest figures showing a decline by over 8% since mid-2015 to 8.825 mm bpd.
China authorities are ordering many investment firms to close their storefronts on busy streets.
BOE officials said they will interpret economic data around the Brexit referendum with caution.
Wednesday, May 4, 2016:
I think we will see more bankruptcy filinings for oil and gas companies in the 2nd quarter than we saw in the first.
Aeropostale filed for bankruptcy protection. The company has moree than 700 locations in the US.
We have had a couple of days of very strong corn selling by farmers.
In China, the biggest risk to the onshore bond market is refinancing risk.
March retail sales in the eurozone was -0.5% on the month, compared to expectations of a -0.1% drop.
Tuesday, May 3, 2016:
SF Fed President Williams says the US can't ignore other global economies.
The European Commission cut Euro-Zone growth to 1.6% from 1.7%.
The Caixin Manufacturing PMI for China fell to 49.4 from 49.7.
SF Fed Pres Williams said insatiable demand for safe assets still there.
Goldman Analyst Robin brooks said the BOJ made a fateful miscalculation by not adding stimulus.
SF Fed President Williams said sees downside risk to equilibrium rates
The Royal Bank of Australia cut rates to a record low of 1.75%, citing a lower outlook for consumer growth.
UBS first quater profits missed estimates as net income fell 64%.
Commerbank bank's stock fell as much as 9.4% as their net income fell 50%
Monday, May 2, 2016:
Iran's oil output rose by 300k barrels a day to 3.5m, the most since December 2011.
Gas drillers are already emerging from bancruptcy by eliminating debt loads and renogitating contracts with suppliers.
Negative rates are counter-productive as it makes people save more to protect future purchasing power because, there is no transparency on future returns.
Because short-duration securities can have negative rates, Prudential is favoring 20-40 year govy bonds in Japan.
It is cheaper for the Fed to have more inflation than expand the balance sheet or trn to negative rates.
Japanese manufacturing activity contracted at the fastest pace in more than 3 years.
Mortgage approvals in the UK fell slightly but consumer credit grew by 1.883B pounds.
Friday, April 29, 2016:
Ten-year Treasuries "look expensive," based on Goldman's assessment of fair value.
Yields should be at 2.10%, based on the models Goldman uses.
Morgan Stanley is looking for 10-year yields to drop to 1.45%.
"The shocker is whatever they (BOJ) do, they get it wrong." el-Erian.
Euro-area inflation fell to -0.2% in April.
Nationwide crude supplies rose 2m barrels.
Gasoline inventories rose 1.61m barrels last week.
Distillate fuel, which include diesel and heating oil, fell 1.7m barrels.
We are focused on US production, which is down about 650k barrels from the peak.
Refineries reduced operation rates by 1.3% to 88.1% capacity.
Thursday, April 28, 2016:
For the first 16 weeks of 2016, rail traffic is down 14.3% y/y.
Atlanta Fed's GDPNow showed final 1st quarter GDP at 0.6%.
BOJ surprised and left policy unchanged.
In Japan the money multiplier is falling like a stone as demand for lending remains weak.
Annual consumer prices in Germany were unchanged.
German unemployment rate held steady at 6.2%.
To curb some of the speculation in commodities, the Dalian Commodity Exchange in China raised transaction fees for the 4th time in a week.
It doesn't make sense to go short oil ahead of the summer driving season.
Wednesday, April 27, 2016:
With Oil at an average price of $53 per barrel, the world's 50 biggest publicly trade companies can stop bleeding cash.
It will be normal to get near-zero quarter every year. It won't necessarily be the sign of something bad.
China's anti-graft watchdog said that hundreds of staff working for the country's stats bureau have been using data for person gain.
Overseas holding of Chinese Debt rose 2.4% in March, only the second increase in 8 months.
A slide in Bank of China's bad loan buffer to below regulatory minimums, sets the stage for the authorities to loosen standards.
Profits earned by Chinese industrial companies rose 11.1% in March.
The PBOC reduced the amount of cash offered in the money markets, keeping short-term liquidity on a tight leash.
1st Quarter GDP in the UK rose 0.4% down from 0.6% in Q4 2015.
Venezulas ia now so broke that it may not have enought money to pay for its money.
© 2015 R.J. O'Brien & Associates LLC
Futures trading involves the substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.