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The UK Parliament on Saturday will hold a momentous vote about whether to accept the UK/EU Brexit withdrawal agreement.

If the UK Parliament approves the Brexit deal on Saturday, then the UK will exit the EU on October 31. The UK would then enjoy a smooth transition period through the end of 2020 during which the UK will continue to operate under EU customs rules while the UK and the EU negotiate a final trade treaty.

If the UK Parliament approves the Brexit deal on Saturday, then most of the market's worries about Brexit will be over until at least the end of the transition period at the end of 2020.

The threat of a no-deal Brexit on October 31 will be gone, and markets will downgrade Brexit worries to the back burner over the next year. 

By contrast, if the UK Parliament on Saturday votes against the Brexit agreement, then the Brexit quagmire will continue. A possible outcome is that PM Johnson engineers a no-deal Brexit on Oct 31.
The most likely outcome, in that case, would be that Prime Minister Johnson would meet the requirements of the Benn Act and request an extension of the October 31 deadline.

The next step on Brexit would then be determined by the party that wins the next election. 


U.S. and Chinese officials on Thursday made various statements trying to reassure the markets that talks are on track for a phase-one trade deal. Their goal is to write up that deal in legal language and have Presidents Trump and Xi sign the deal at the upcoming APEC Summit in Chile on Nov 16-17.

China's gross domestic product slide to 6%, the lowest level since the early 1990s.


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10/21
Monthly Budget Statement expected $83.0b v. $119.6b
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6-month bill auction $42b