FIG Topics of Interest

 

06/19/19

FUTURES IMPLIED 'SPOT' TERM RATES - JUNE 18 SETTLES

DERIVED FROM 1-MONTH SOFR FUTURES:
1-Mo: 2.3791
2-Mo: 2.3069
3-Mo: 2.2454

DERIVED FROM 3-MONTH SOFR FUTURES:
6-Mo: 2.139
1-Yr:   1.947

ICE-SETTLED LIBOR:
1-Mo: 2.8330
3-Mo: 2.3861
6-Mo: 2.3000
1-Yr:   2.2977

Click here to download a pdf of this article, settles6.18.pdf
 
 

06/18/19

FUTURES IMPLIED 'SPOT' TERM RATES - JUNE 17 SETTLES

DERIVED FROM 1-MONTH SOFR FUTURES:
1-Mo: 2.3611
2-Mo: 2.2834
3-Mo: 2.2199

DERIVED FROM 3-MONTH SOFR FUTURES:
6-Mo: 2.140
1-Yr:  1.925

ICE-SETTLED LIBOR:
1-Mo: 2.38280
3-Mo: 2.38660
6-Mo: 2.29800
1-Yr:   2.26430

Click here to download a pdf of this article, settles6.17.pdf
 
 

06/17/19

FUTURES IMPLIED 'SPOT' TERM RATES - JUNE 14 SETTLES

DERIVED FROM 1-MONTH SOFR FUTURES:
1-Mo: 2.3952
2-Mo: 2.3320
3-Mo: 2.2662

DERIVED FROM 3-MONTH SOFR FUTURES:
6-Mo: 2.127
1-Yr: 1.908

ICE-SETTLED LIBOR:
1-Mo: 2.39020
3-Mo: 2.41850
6-Mo: 2.30870
1-Yr: 2.28670

Click here to download a pdf of this article, settles6.14.pdf
 
 

06/14/19

FUTURES IMPLIED 'SPOT' TERM RATES - JUNE 13 SETTLES

DERIVED FROM 1-MONTH SOFR FUTURES:
1-Mo: 2.3765
2-Mo: 2.3089
3-Mo: 2.2371

DERIVED FROM 3-MONTH SOFR FUTURES:
6-Mo: 2.117
1-Yr:   1.892

ICE-SETTLED LIBOR:
1-Mo: 2.38175
3-Mo: 2.40200
6-Mo: 2.27738
1-Yr:   2.24650

Click here to download a pdf of this article, settles6.13.pdf
 
 

06/13/19

FUTURES IMPLIED 'SPOT' TERM RATES - JUNE 12 SETTLES
– Rates Below Estimated from the Last SOFR Set & Current Futures Market


DERIVED FROM 1-MONTH SOFR FUTURES:
1-Mo: 2.4100
2-Mo: 2.3466
3-Mo: 2.2793

DERIVED FROM 3-MONTH SOFR FUTURES:
6-Mo: 2.1670
1-Yr:  1.9560

ICE-SETTLED LIBOR:
1-Mo: 2.39425
3-Mo: 2.41025
6-Mo: 2.31838
1-Yr:  2.30563

Click here to download a pdf of this article, settles6.12.pdf
 
 

06/13/19

The NIH, the world’s biggest public funder of basic biomedical research, wields immense power over the nation’s health-research community. It allocates about $26 billion a year in federal grants; roughly $6 billion of that goes to cancer research.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-06-13/the-u-s-is-purging-chinese-americans-from-top-cancer-research?srnd=premium
At a June 5 hearing, NIH officials told the U.S. Senate Committee on Finance that the agency has contacted 61 research institutions about suspected diversion of proprietary information by grant recipients and referred 16 cases, mainly involving undisclosed ties to foreign governments, for possible legal action. Ways of working that have long been encouraged by the NIH and many research institutions, particularly MD Anderson, are now quasi-criminalized, with FBI agents reading private emails, stopping Chinese scientists at airports, and visiting people’s homes to ask about their loyalty.

The dossier on cancer researcher Xifeng Wu was thick with intrigue, if hardly the stuff of a spy thriller. It contained findings that she’d improperly shared confidential information and accepted a half-dozen advisory roles at medical institutions in China. She might have weathered those allegations, but for a larger aspersion that was far more problematic: She was branded an oncological double agent.

Click here to download a pdf of this article, Missile.pdf
 
 

06/12/19

FUTURES IMPLIED 'SPOT' TERM RATES - JUNE 11 SETTLES

DERIVED FROM 1-MONTH SOFR FUTURES:
1-Mo: 2.4325
2-Mo: 2.366
3-Mo: 2.309

DERIVED FROM 3-MONTH SOFR FUTURES:
6-Mo: 2.165
1-Yr: 1.954

ICE-SETTLED LIBOR:
1-Mo: 2.40113
3-Mo: 2.42788
6-Mo: 2.34163
1-Yr: 2.333

Click here to download a pdf of this article, settles6.11.pdf
 
 

06/12/19

Are we so simple that we think anything sent to Hong Kong or Taiwan has not been seen and or re-engineered by mainland China?  This is yet another distraction, which takes our gaze away from our own inept Congress? 
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a Democrat, issued a statement Wednesday calling for legislative action in the U.S. Congress to “reassess” whether Hong Kong is “sufficiently autonomous” under the One Country, Two Systems framework that guides its relations with Beijing. She said she looked forward to the introduction of legislation in coming days that she referred to as the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-12/pelosi-vows-to-review-hong-kong-trade-ties-over-extradition-bill?srnd=premium
Hong Kong’s special trading status for some sensitive U.S. technology imports. The move would be a severe blow to Hong Kong’s reputation as a investment destination.

Under the terms of the United States-Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992, the U.S. agreed to treat the former British colony as fully autonomous for trade and economic matters even after China took control in 1997. That means Hong Kong is exempt from Trump’s punitive tariffs on China and enjoys U.S. support its participation in international bodies like the World Trade Organization.
“The extradition bill imperils the strong U.S.-Hong Kong relationship that has flourished for two decades,” Pelosi said. “If it passes, the Congress has no choice but to reassess whether Hong Kong is ‘sufficiently autonomous.’”

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Republican, issued a similar statement saying that Hong Kong residents “rightly view” the extradition bill “as another erosion of the rule of law and tightening of Beijing’s grip on their imperiled autonomy.”

The statements are the strongest indication, yet that Congress may act on a recommendation issued last year by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission to reconsider. 

Click here to download a pdf of this article, Missile.pdf
 
 

06/11/19

“Uncertainty levels remain high, but owners are focused on a very busy Main Street,” report authors William Dunkelberg and Holly Wade wrote. “The surge in optimism was supported by solid gains in reported capital spending, hiring, inventory investment and profit trends.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-11/u-s-small-business-optimism-climbs-to-highest-in-seven-months?srnd=premium
The National Federation of Independent Business optimism index increased 1.5 points to 105 on more upbeat views of the economy, employment, capital outlays and sales, a report showed Tuesday. Analysts had forecast a 1.5-point decline in the gauge.

The fourth straight improvement in optimism, the longest streak in two years, is the latest sign of brighter assessments by small business owners despite trade-policy uncertainty. NFIB’s gauge, based on responses from 650-member firms surveyed in May, remains at one of its highest levels of the expansion and not far from the record 108.8 level in August

Click here to download a pdf of this article, Missile.pdf
 
 

06/07/19

U.S. Vice President Mike Pence said Mexico had offered “more” on Thursday than on Wednesday but that it would be up to Trump - who returns from a European trip on Friday - to decide if it were enough.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-mexico/as-mexico-u-s-talks-progress-markets-rise-on-hopes-a-deal-could-be-close-idUSKCN1T71MK
“There has been some movement on their part. It’s been encouraging,” he said. “The discussions are going to continue in the days ahead.”
Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard told reporters the Mexican government had offered to send 6,000 members of the National Guard to secure its southern border with Guatemala.
In a sign of a wider crackdown, the leftist administration of Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said earlier that it blocked the bank accounts of 26 people for alleged links to human trafficking, while it detained on Wednesday at least 350 migrants crossing into Mexico and arrested two prominent migrant rights activists.
U.S.-Mexico migration talks will continue on Friday, Mexico’s Ebrard said.
Analysts warn that tariffs could spark a recession in Mexico. Credit ratings agency Fitch downgraded Mexico’s sovereign debt rating on Wednesday, citing trade tensions among other risks, while Moody’s lowered its outlook to negative.

Click here to download a pdf of this article, Missile.pdf