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July 2, 2024

The World is Smoldering:

Satellite Images Show Expansion of Suspected Chinese Spy Bases in Cuba
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/china-cuba-suspected-spy-bases-da1d6ec9?mod=hp_lead_pos7
Images captured from space show the growth of Cuba’s electronic eavesdropping stations that are believed to be linked to China, including new construction at a previously unreported site about 70 miles from the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo Bay, according to a new report.
The study from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank, follows reporting last year by The Wall Street Journal that China and Cuba were negotiating closer defense and intelligence ties, including establishing a new joint military training facility on the island and an eavesdropping facility.

Why Kamala Harris Would Be Biden’s Likeliest Replacement
https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/why-kamala-harris-would-be-bidens-likeliest-replacement-72a0c189?mod=hp_lead_pos2

NATO to Establish Kyiv Post, and Seeks to ‘Trump-Proof’ Ukraine Aid
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/nato-to-establish-new-kyiv-post-for-ukraine-81b4205c?mod=world_lead_pos4
NATO will station a senior civilian official in Kyiv, among a raft of new measures designed to shore up long-term support for Ukraine that are expected to be announced at a summit in Washington next week, U.S. and alliance officials say. 
The steps seek to buttress Ukraine’s prospects to eventually join the alliance without offering it membership. They come amid a right-wing political surge across Europe and the growing possibility that former President Donald Trump could return to the White House and reduce American support for Ukraine. 
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is also establishing a new command in Wiesbaden, Germany, to coordinate the provision of military equipment to Kyiv and the training of Ukrainian troops. 
The operation, to be called NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine, will be staffed by nearly 700 U.S. and other allied personnel from across the 32-country alliance. It will take over much of a mission that has been run by the American military since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Fed’s Goolsbee Says Policymakers Should Prepare for Rate Cuts
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-02/fed-s-goolsbee-says-policymakers-should-prepare-for-rate-cuts?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=k5DuN3at
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said policymakers should cut interest rates if US inflation continues to fall back to the 2% target.
The Chicago Fed chief, speaking Tuesday on Bloomberg TV in Sintra, Portugal, said he feels “we are on a path to 2%” inflation and “if you just hold the rates where they are while inflation comes down, you are tightening — so you should do that by decision, not by default.”

US Labor Market Shows Signs of Losing Steam, Putting the Fed on Alert
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-02/fed-on-alert-for-us-labor-market-as-hiring-and-quitting-slow?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=k5DuN3at
Economists and some Federal Reserve officials are increasingly on alert that pain could be on the horizon for American workers amid signs the labor market is losing steam. 
Companies are posting fewer job openings this year and employees are quitting less as unemployment has begun creeping up from low levels, signaling the end of the historically-tight labor conditions that characterized the rapid recovery from the pandemic shock.
Strength in hiring has so far helped the economy weather aggressive Fed tightening, which brought interest rates to the highest levels in two decades. With inflation still running above the central bank’s 2% target, the fear is that any further softening in labor conditions could start to snowball and put economic growth at risk.

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